The 2026 UK Business Outlook and Market Strategies

Trading services were asked how their turnover in January 2026 compared with December 2025, excluding any seasonal trading. Information are outlined in the middle of the duration of each wave. Nearly a 3rd (31%) of trading services reported that their turnover had actually reduced in January 2026 compared to the previous month.

However, the movements are broadly in line with those observed around this time in previous years, with peaks in December followed by small falls in January. The markets with the highest percentage reporting that turnover decreased in January 2026 were: the accommodation and food service activities industry (52%, which is a 21 percentage point increase from December 2025) the other services industry (45%) the arts, home entertainment and recreation market (40%) Around 16% of trading businesses reported that their turnover increased in January 2026, which was a 3 percentage point increase compared to December 2025.

For trading organizations with 10 or more employees, 33% reported that their turnover had actually reduced, which was broadly stable compared with December and January 2025. More than one in 5 (23%) companies reported that their turnover had increased, up 2 portion points compared with December 2025. Normally, the proportion of companies reporting that their turnover increased correlated to the size of business.

The exception to this was the proportion for services with 250 or more workers, which was 25%, and 5 percentage points lower than December 2025 (30%). Trading companies were asked how they anticipate their turnover to change in the coming month. This can then be utilized to predict how business's turnover will actually alter once that calendar month concludes.

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Trends between anticipated turnover and real turnover have actually broadly moved in the same instructions, the motions for expectations tend to be larger. Caution ought to be taken when translating expectations questions, as the employees reacting on behalf of businesses might not have full oversight of all of their business's future expectations.

ANSR July UK PRs

More than one in five (21%) trading services expect their turnover to increase in March 2026. This is a 6 percentage point rise from February 2026 however was broadly stable compared to expectations for March 2025 (22%). The proportion of trading businesses expecting a boost in January 2026 was 13%, while the proportion that reported a real increase in turnover in January 2026 was 16%, recommending a small pessimism in businesses expectations.

Nevertheless, the patterns have broadly followed each other since the concerns were introduced in April 2022. The results for March 2026 follow the trend from previous years, with the percentage of services expecting turnover to increase peaking after a decline in January. Larger services were more most likely to expect a boost in turnover in March, with the proportion varying from 20% for services with 0 to 9 staff members, to 42% for companies with 100 to 249 staff members.

For presentational functions, some response options have actually been removed. Data are plotted in the middle of the duration of each wave.

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The percentage of trading organizations that anticipated a decrease in January 2026 was 25%, while the percentage that reported an actual decline in turnover in January 2026 was 31%. The proportion of businesses anticipating turnover to reduce for a specific month ahead of time has actually stayed considerably lower than the percentage of companies reporting a real decline because month since April 2022.

Expectations for turnover to reduce have regularly followed the exact same pattern, as real reported turnover reduces throughout this time. Trading services were asked what obstacles, if any, were affecting their turnover in early February 2026. Around 3 in 10 (30%) trading companies reported that financial uncertainty was having an effect on their turnover, which was broadly stable with early January 2026.

This is broadly steady compared to early January 2026 and 2 percentage points down compared with a year earlier. For trading companies with 10 or more workers, cost of labour was the most frequently reported obstacle, at 36%. This was broadly stable compared to early January 2026. Businesses with 10 to 49 employees were most likely to report expense of labour as a challenge than organizations with 250 or more staff members (37%, compared to 20%). One in 5 (20%) trading companies with 10 or more staff members indicated that they were not presently experiencing any turnover obstacles in early February 2026. More information on financial efficiency, including all reaction alternatives categorised by industry and size band, are available in our accompanying dataset.