Mapping the UK Business Outlook and Market Predictions

Trading organizations were asked how their turnover in January 2026 compared to December 2025, excluding any seasonal trading. Data are plotted in the middle of the duration of each wave. Nearly a third (31%) of trading services reported that their turnover had reduced in January 2026 compared with the previous month.

The movements are broadly in line with those observed around this time in previous years, with peaks in December followed by small falls in January. The industries with the highest percentage reporting that turnover reduced in January 2026 were: the accommodation and food service activities market (52%, which is a 21 portion point increase from December 2025) the other services industry (45%) the arts, home entertainment and leisure industry (40%) Roughly 16% of trading organizations reported that their turnover increased in January 2026, which was a 3 percentage point increase compared with December 2025.

For trading companies with 10 or more employees, 33% reported that their turnover had reduced, which was broadly stable compared to December and January 2025. More than one in 5 (23%) companies reported that their turnover had increased, up 2 percentage points compared with December 2025. Normally, the proportion of businesses reporting that their turnover increased correlated to the size of the organization.

The exception to this was the proportion for organizations with 250 or more employees, which was 25%, and 5 percentage points lower than December 2025 (30%). Trading services were asked how they expect their turnover to alter in the coming month. This can then be used to predict how business's turnover will actually alter as soon as that calendar month concludes.

Analyzing Global Trade Outlooks for British Firms

Patterns in between predicted turnover and actual turnover have actually broadly moved in the exact same direction, the movements for expectations tend to be bigger. Care ought to be taken when analyzing expectations concerns, as the employees responding on behalf of companies might not have full oversight of all of their service's future expectations.

ANSR July UK PRs

More than one in five (21%) trading businesses anticipate their turnover to increase in March 2026. This is a 6 percentage point rise from February 2026 however was broadly stable compared to expectations for March 2025 (22%). The proportion of trading organizations expecting a boost in January 2026 was 13%, while the proportion that reported a real increase in turnover in January 2026 was 16%, suggesting a slight pessimism in businesses expectations.

The patterns have actually broadly followed each other given that the concerns were introduced in April 2022. The results for March 2026 follow the pattern from previous years, with the portion of businesses anticipating turnover to increase peaking after a decline in January. Larger businesses were more most likely to expect a boost in turnover in March, with the proportion ranging from 20% for businesses with 0 to 9 workers, to 42% for services with 100 to 249 staff members.

For presentational functions, some action choices have been gotten rid of. Information are outlined in the middle of the duration of each wave. Care must be taken when interpreting expectations concerns, as the staff members responding on behalf of companies may not have full oversight of all of their company's future expectations. "." represents data not yet offered.

Scaling British Enterprise International Growth in 2026

The proportion of trading services that anticipated a reduction in January 2026 was 25%, while the proportion that reported an actual reduction in turnover in January 2026 was 31%. The percentage of organizations expecting turnover to reduce for a specific month ahead of time has stayed considerably lower than the percentage of services reporting an actual decline in that month because April 2022.

Expectations for turnover to reduce have consistently followed the exact same trend, as real reported turnover reduces throughout this time. Trading services were asked what challenges, if any, were impacting their turnover in early February 2026. Around 3 in 10 (30%) trading services reported that economic unpredictability was having an impact on their turnover, which was broadly steady with early January 2026.

For trading organizations with 10 or more staff members, expense of labour was the most often reported challenge, at 36%. Companies with 10 to 49 employees were more most likely to report expense of labour as a challenge than companies with 250 or more employees (37%, compared with 20%). One in five (20%) trading companies with 10 or more workers indicated that they were not currently experiencing any turnover difficulties in early February 2026.